Anali Okoloji likely to transfer at end of semester

Still not confirmed but it is looking more and more likely that Okoloji will transfer. If he transfers that leaves Willard with three scholarships to give out for 2011.

Is the Big East over-rated and why I think they can't produce final four teams

We have been hearing a lot (most notably from Charles Barkley) about how the Big East is over-rated due to their lack of Final Four teams. However, I find this to be utterly false. Here are my reasons on why I feel the Big East can't produce Final Four teams

1. The grind of the regular season and the conference play: I believe this is the biggest reason why the Big East fails to produce final four teams. No other conference in the country plays an 18 game schedule. No other conference in the country has only one or two teams each year that are considered "cupcakes". What I am going to do now is look at how many NCAA tournament teams each of the 11 teams in the conference that made the tournament played:
Pittsburgh: Texas, Tennessee, Connecticut, Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Villanova, St. Johns, West Virginia, Louisville, Villanova, and Conncecticut (15)
Notre Dame: Georgia, Wisconsin, Indiana State, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, St. Johns, Marquette, St. Johns, Cincinnati, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Louisville (20)
Syracuse: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, St. Johns, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Marquette, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, St. Johns, Connecticut (16)
Connecticut: Michigan State, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Texas, Villanova, Tennessee, Marquette, Louisville, Syracuse, St. Johns, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville (21)
Louisville: Butler, UNLV, Kentucky, Villanova, Marquette, St. Johns, West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, Connecticut (18)
West Virginia: Oakland, Vanderbilt, St. Johns, Marquette, Georgetown, Purdue, Louisville, Cincinnati, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette (16)
St. Johns: West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Duke, UCLA, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Syracuse (16)
Cincinnati: Xavier, Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame, St. Johns, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, St. Johns, Louisville, Georgetown, Connecticut, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame (14)
Georgetown: Old Dominion, Wofford, UNC Asheville, Missouri, Utah State, Temple, Memphis, Notre Dame, St. Johns, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, St. Johns, Villanova, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Connecticut (21)
Villanova: Bucknell, Boston University, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Connecticut, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, St. Johns, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh (17)
Marquette: Bucknell, Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, St. Johns, Connecticut, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville (19)
*these don't include NCAA tournament games
Now, can you tell me who else in any other major conference played at least 14 and up to 21 teams that were in the tournament? I can't think of any.
This is my main argument. My other argument would be the following:
2. Lack of elite talent in the Big East: The Big East has a lot of good players but not many great players. The only great player this conference had this year was Kemba Walker. In fact, since Carmelo Anthony there has only been one all star from the Big East which is Rudy Gay. The reason for this is that usually out of the top 10 in ESPN top 150 go to non Big-East teams. The fact is, it takes elite talent to win in March and the Big East does not have elite talent.

These two things lead me to believe the following:
1. The Big East is the best conference in the nation
2. The Big East won't be very successful in March

I still believe that the Big East is the best conference because of their incredible depth and the fact that every team is playing double digit tournament teams every year. They won't be successful in March for that very same reason though. They beat each other up throughout the season which causes them to wear out by the time the Dance begins. So Charles Barkley, go to hell 

It's a long road back

People that thought Kevin Willard would come in and get instant results were wrong in expecting that. It just doesn't happen. Unless you are a John Calipari and can get a #1 recruiting class, you are not going to be able to come to a program and instantly be successful. Just look at Mick Cronin and the University of Cincinatti as an example. Cronin took over a team that was in tatters and was entering the Big East. His 1st year he went 11-19. His 2nd year he went 13-17. His 3rd year he went 18-12. None of those years did they make the post-season. His 4th season they went 19-16 and won an NIT game. This year, an incredible 26-8 and took his team to the 2nd round of the NCAA tournamnet. His teams improved every season. He was dicisplined and installed a system and stuck with it. He kept preaching defense and being smart. He kept working on recruiting. He established a recruiting bed in a location full of talent and stuck with it. He recruited New Jersey. He got assistants that believed what he believed and he had a school that cared more about its image than instant success. All these things lead to this incredbile season. Coach Kevin Willard is essentially in the same spot as Mick Cronin was 5 years ago. He took over a program, that while it was filled with talent, it was undisicplined talent that were all me 1st players. He has already began the rebuilding image. It started with the benching of Herb Pope for the 1st half of the Arkansas game. It continued with the dismissal of Keon Lawrence and Jamel Jackson. It is happening right now by recruiting high character and hard working kids. Seton Hall won 13 games this year. Expecting 15 for next year is realistic. If Willard keeps sticking to his system and keeps coaching hard, Seton Hall will continue to improve. If Patrick Hobbs sticks with Willard for 5 to 6 years before expecting great things, Seton Hall can be the next Cincinatti. However, it is not going to happen overnight. It will take days, months, and years to get Seton Hall's image to where it needs to be. It will take years to get Seton Hall into a NCAA tournament staple that we can expect tournament results every year. However, for the next 2 to 4 years just enjoy the ride and hope that Seton Hall sticks with Kevin Willard for as long as it takes.

How Herb Pope, Fuquan Edwin, and Jordan Theodroe can improve to make next year's team competitive

We all know that losing Jeremy Hazell and wing defender Eniel Polynice is going to be hard to replace. I think we can replace JROB with a combo of Auda and Okoloji. But replacing Hazell and Polynice will take a trio of players to step up. Those 3 players are Herb Pope, Fuquan Edwin, and Jordan Theodore. Here is how those three players need to improve to carry Seton Hall next year:
Herb Pope:
Pope needs to improve a couple things. Offensively, he needs to work on a consistent back to the basket game along with a mid range jumper. If he can get a consistent 18 foot jumper and a consistent go to move when backing down, he can become a star big-man in the Big East. Defensively, he needs to avoid fouls. It seemed that at least 1 time a game he would either commit a reach or an over the back foul. He is too valuable to the team to be picking up stupid fouls. If he can improve these three things I think he can average somewhere in the neighborhood of 16ppg and 10rpg. 
Fuquan Edwin:
Edwin has a bunch of things he can improve to become a star. The 1st is his 3pt shooting. He was decent this year in the low 30's %, but to become a star he needs to be able to shoot 38 to 40 percent from 3. This will come with more practice. If he works on his form then he can continue to improve. The next thing he needs to improve is his ball handling ability. This year he did not do much if any ball handling. But next year, he will probably be asked to play a lot of 2guard so he needs to get better at dribbling the basketball. Like his shooting, it will just take hard work. The 3rd and last thing that he needs to improve offensively is his finishing in the lane. Countless times this year, we saw him grab an offensive board and blow the putback. If he works on finishing, along with the other 2 things, he can become a star offensive weapon. Defensively, he just needs to work on positioning. He had a few freshman lapses that I think will go away with experience. If he improves these things he could average somewhere near 13ppg, 5rpg, and 1.8spg.
Jordan Theodore:
I think the player most vital to our success next year is JT. When Jordan was on this year, he was incredible. When he wasn't, he was terrible. Jordan's biggest problem is consistency. If he becomes consistently good, like if he performs like he did in the Georgetown game, we will be a fairley good team. If he plays like he did in the West Virginia game, we will be terrible. If Theodore gets consistent, he can average 15ppg and 5apg.

If these three players raise their games to levels they are more than capable of, Seton Hall can have a decent season. I don't think they will make the NCAA tourney, but a 16 or 17 win season would definitely be possible.

1st round upset has already happened

In an incredible game, Morehead State hit a 3 with 4.2 seconds left to give them a 1 point lead. Mara then had a 3pt attempt blocked and the game ended. I will update this thread as more upsets happen.

Upset #2: Richmond beats Vanderbilt (I picked this one)

Zaga is dominating St. Johns with 5:30 to go. Cincy has taken control over Mizzou. KSTATE up 8 with 11 to go. Will have a day 1 recap tomorrow afternoon.

Update on Michigan State as soon as the game ends.

Tips to picking the NCAA bracket and my bracket

I am no expert but over the last three years I place 2nd twice and won one time. So, here are some tips I use to pick my bracket:1. Advance the 1 seeds to the sweet Sixteen: I know Kansas lost last year to Northern Iowa but it is extremely rare for a 1 seed not to make it to the sweet 16. In fact, it has only happened four times since 1985. Just advance all four 1 seeds to the 16.
2. The number 1 overall seed has only won once in the last 10 years: That was UNC in 07. This means: Don't pick Ohio State to win. I think Ohio State is the best team with the least flaws but I am not picking them to win.
3. For the first round pick 2 upsets per day: One in the early games and one in the late games. Don't overkill with upsets. The 12 seed wins about 33% and the 13 about 31%. I usually pick 2 11 seeds, 1 12 seed, and 1 13 seed.
4. Pick 2 10 vs 7 winners and 2 9 vs 8 winners: This is just based off what I have seen. If you can get these games right it is points that a lot of others might not get. It might only be 8 points between these but they can be a big 8 points since not many people get these right.
5. Research the 7 vs 10 and 8 vs 9 games: As I said in #4, getting these games right can be huge in the long run. They are equal to getting one game right in the elite eight. So, if you can get these 8 games right you can gain a 9th elite eight pick essentially. With that said, don't just go up to the bracket and pick the games. Spend 3 or 4 minutes on each game and pick it after good research. See which team has the better guard play. However, if one team rebounds really well and one sucks on the glass take the rebounding team (see UNLV vs. Illinois this year)
6. Advance the 2-4 seeds to the 2nd round: There is an occasional upset in the 1st round of these seeds but it is extremely difficult to get it right. So, the safest thing to do is just advance them.
7. Pick one 7vs10 to beat a 2 seed in the 2nd round: This usually happens in every year. This year I have Washington beating UNC. This is because: 1. Washington has way more experience. 2. Washington has better guard play. Those two things are why I have them winning. UNC is a young team that is very turnover prone. Those types of teams don't fare well in the tournament (see Kentucky last year)
8. Pick Michigan State to the Sweet 16: I learned the hard way last year. I thought Michigan State was a sleeper team but I got nervous and changed it at the last minute. I should have stuck with my guts. Michigan State always gets to the Sweet 16. With that said:
9. Don't pick Michigan State to the Sweet 16: My normal strategy is to take Michigan State to the sweet 16. However, the risk is not worth the reward this year. Take Florida in round 2.
10. Look at Risk vs. Reward: Lets say for example, you have Kansas vs. Louisville in the sweet 16 and you think Louisville will win. But then you think Louisville will lose in the Elite 8. The risk of having a possible champion (Kansas) out in the sweet 16 is not worth the reward of advancing Louisville one more round. Therefore, even though you think Louisville will win, take Kansas in your pool. This is because, if Kansas does go onto win it all, it is much better to have them in the Elite 8 than the Sweet 16. Another example could be advancing Florida to the Final 4. If you get it right, it will be huge. But, Florida could very easily lose in any of its 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round games. The possibility of an early exit for Florida (maybe to Mich. State in Round 2) is not worth the reward of getting the Final 4 pick right.
11. Pick the safest teams to the final four: These are teams that are very consistent with none or one head scratching losses. They don't rely on any one aspect of their game. This years teams are: Ohio State, Syracuse, Duke, San Diego State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue, Pittsburgh, and Florida. Now the problem is narrowing this down to four teams.
12. Do pick one surprise Sweet 16 team: This is a good example of risk vs. reward. Lets take for example Wisconsin vs. Belmont and then Belmont vs. Kansas State. Since it is very unlikely that Wisconsin or Kansas State make it passed the Sweet 16 and Pittsburgh, it is worth the risk to pick Belmont to the Sweet 16. If you are right then you get 1 point for the 1st round and 2 points for the second round. If Belmont losses in the 1st round you only lose 3 points. 3 points could lead you to victory but it probably won't cost you a victory.
13. Don't pick a Cinderella past the Sweet 16: It is very rare to get a George Mason or Davidson. However, it is very likely to get a Cinderella into the Sweet 16. So, don't take the chance of missing 8 points or even 16 points for a Final four for the chance at picking this year's Cinderella.
14. Do pick teams with incredible 3pt shooting to advance one round: Find a lower seeded team that can really stroke it from downtown, and move them forward one round only. For example, Villanova. But don't pick Villanova. They are slumping and cold from 3 and their star is hurt. Another possibility is Wofford.
15. Backfill your bracket: Put your 8 elite eight teams first and then fill in the sweet 16, round 2, and round 1. This prevents you from over-thinking and making dumb mistakes. You know in your mind who you think will make the elite eight but you might over-think a match-up in round 2 and eliminate them. For example, people don't think Pittsburgh matches up well with Old Dominon so they might take ODU. Dumb!
16. Have fun: No explanation needed. And now, my bracket:
East Region:
Round 1 Winners: Ohio State, George Mason,  West Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier, Syracuse, Washington, North Carolina
Round 2 Winners: Ohio State, West Virginia, Syracuse, Washington
Sweet 16 Winners: Ohio State, Syracuse
Elite 8 Winner: Ohio State
Explanations: I think Kentucky and North Carolina are set up for losing in round 2. They are inexperienced, have inconsistent guard play and 3pt shooting. They will both be facing tough defensive teams in Washington and West Virginia with Senior leadership and good guards. I think Syracuse vs. Ohio State will be a great game but I think Ohio States balance of size, shooting, experience, and smarts will win them the game. Jardine and Triche are awesome when they are on but they are inconsistent and vs. Ohio State they will falter. 
West Region:
Round 1 Winners: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, Connecticut, Temple, San Diego State
Round 2 Winners: Duke, Arizona, Connecticut, San Diego State
Sweet 16 Winners: Duke, San Diego State
Elite 8 Winner: San Diego State
Explanations: The first round upset for me is Missouri over Cincinatti. Cincy has inconsistent guard play and a big man in Yancy Gates that does not always try. Mizzou plays incredible high pressure defense and has great guard play. Texas is my second round team primed to lose. They have inconsistent guard play, can't shoot free throws, and have inconsistent defense. San Diego State vs. Duke will be a great game but I think SDSU's defense and length will frustrate Duke's 3pt shooters and SDSU will win in OT. 
Southwest Region:
Round 1 Winners: Kansas, UNLV, Richmond, Louisville, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State, Notre Dame
Round 2 Winners: Kansas, Louisville, Purdue, Notre Dame
Sweet 16 Winners: Kansas, Purdue
Elite 8 Winners: Kansas
Explanations: Richmond is my upset pick in this region along with Florida State. Richmond is a streaky 3pt shooting team that when on can take over a game. They come into the tourney on a high and can upset Vandy, who has a history of losing in round 1. Florida State plays incredible defense and has Senior leaders. Purdue vs. Notre Dame will be a great game but I don't think Notre Dame can stop Johnson and Moore. Kansas should not have much trouble with Purdue. 
Southeast Region:
Round 1 Winners:  Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Utah State, Belmont, Gonzaga, BYU, Michigan State, Florida
Round 2 Winners: Pittsburgh, Utah State, BYU, Florida
Sweet 16 Winners: Pittsburgh, Florida
Elite 8 Winners: Pittsburgh
Explanations: This is my upset filled region. I think Old Dominion will win by 10. Utah State is one of the best teams in college basketball. They are great on defense and offense and should be able to shock everybody. Belmont is one of my hot picks as well. They should have been a 10 or 9 seed and Wisconsin's offense is inconsistent. St. John's is missing D.J. Kennedy and Zaga is one of the hottest teams in the nation. Michigan State is a very good team that has a great coach. Utah State vs. Belmont will be a great game but I think Utah State prevails. Michigan State vs. Florida will also be another great game but I think Florida prevails. Gonzaga vs. BYU will be an incredible battle but I think the fighting Jimmer's will win. Pittsburgh should cruise through this region with relative ease and be ready for the final 4. 
Final Four:
Ohio State over San Diego State
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Explanations: Ohio State will be surprised by SDSU. SDSU will almost pull an upset but Ohio State will win in OT. Kansas will also struggle with Pittsburgh but I think Kansas wins because of the Morris twins. Pittsburgh will have a chance late but falter. 
Championship:
Kansas over Ohio State
Explanations: This is just me following my rules. The overall #1 seed almost never wins so I am taking Kansas. I do believe Kansas would win this matchup anyways though. The Morris twins and I think Josh Selby steps up big in this game and Kansas wins 85 to 83.

Season Recap Part 3 - go 8 minutes without scoring and blow a big 2nd half lead era

The title was basically what this 13 game part of our season was. But here is more details:

Hazell made a sudden and brilliant return on January 12th vs. Depaul. He scored 23 points and it looked like he never lost a step. Seton Hall won 78 to 67. Our next game was a rather embarrasing performance vs. Pittsburgh. We lost by a score of 74-53. Hazell was bottled up scoring just 9 points. JROB had a decent 3pt shooting day at 2-5. Our next two games were perhaps the most heart-breaking of the season. At a game I attended, Seton Hall took on Georgetown in front of a packed house at The Rock. We made a great run in the 2nd half to take a lead but when Pope fouled out with 2 minutes left we struggled and lost by 5 points. Hazell had 15pts but he was just 1-7 from 3. My theory is that he took a shooting lesson from JROB before the game. Nonetheless, our next game was vs. Rutgers at home. We came out flat and were embarrased. We lost by only 6 points but it was pathetic. Hazell was again bottled up scoring just 15 points on 2-11 from 3pt shooting. JROB was 2-7. I still don't understand why Hazell decided to take shooting lessons from JROB for two games? Our next two games were awesome. We went to the Carrier Dome and destroyed Syracuse beating them 90-68. Hazell scored 28 points to lead 5 Pirates in double figures. WE then went on to beat Providence at home. We were now 4-6 in the conference and on a 2 game winning streak. But another offensive joke put an end to those highs. Our ensuing game vs. WVU we scored just 46 points and lost. Our next game home vs. Uconn, we blew a 14 point second half lead and lost by 2. This was the most pathetic 11 minutes I have ever seen. We made ZERO field goals in 11 minutes. We were a joke. Embarrasing. I am just going to stop here because I am getting upset. The last 7 games will be tomorrow